Demonetization EXPOSED: Rajendra Sharma says its an expensive mistake
Even if we keep aside the lives of the 103 people who have not been denied by the note-bars, the loss of the country’s economy, which has been made by the ban on bondage, is very heavy. …
After all, the ban on policemen opened. Of course, the Modi Government has altered the Union cabinet soon, in order to get its heavy failure out of the news, according to its nature. Despite this, the truth of this failure will not be easy to ignore. It is also so that the Reserve Bank has stamped officially even after the failure of the complete ban on the ban. After months of retaliation for the Modi government to save the embarrassment of officially accepting this failure, the central bank duly accepted the fact that there was no other way too hidden. Well! Now this is an official fact.
In the beginning of November last year, the Prime Minister imposed a ban on five hundred thousand rupees notes and 99 percent of the note-bound notes returned to the banks. Notes of Rs 15.44 lakh crore were exempted out of the currency, out of which 15.28 lakh crore notes were returned to the banking system. In this way, the non-returning notes in the banking system will not be more than Rs 16,000 crore.
Do these figures really tell the story of the failure of the ban on filing?
This question becomes even more important, even after the RBI data has come up, the government has repeated its claim to the success of the ban on bondage.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, in particular, took the lead in the matter in this matter. However, Jaitley’s defense of the note-taking has actually been shaken by the original targets of the note-offs.
Everyone knows that the prime minister’s announcement of the ban was most loud in the television broadcast, black money economy and black money attack. Even the note-up was being told to the surgical strike on black money. Along with this, the matter of attacking forged notes and funding of terrorism was also added. Although the attack on at least counterfeit notes has opened up with the fact that in the old notes returned in the banking system, the amount of forged notes is in double digits only. In this sense, the case of a cannon is used to fly the fly.
And how was the ban on black money?
It was believed by the government and it was being told that black money only means unaccounted cash. The black cash will be stripped off by the filing of the filing. It will happen that those who are honest will be able to change their old notes by taking them into banks. But, black money players will not have the courage to take their black money, deposits in banks, to be replaced by new notes, because banks will have to clean it. As a result, it will be worthless that the time is spent in money and money laundering among the pilgrims. This direct attack on black money was being said to be the biggest target of the banquoement. From secretarial to confidentiality to contingency, everyone was justified on this basis.
At that time, it was estimated that in a formal manner, but primarily informally, various levels of governance were being introduced that how much black money would be destroyed in this way? 20 to 30 percent of the rejected notes were not expected to return to the banking system and thus were directly destroyed. Not only this, assuming the ‘black money’ wasted directly as ‘earning’ of the government, it was also debating that how to spend the unexpected earnings of ‘nation’ between Rs 3 to 5 lakh crore needed. For this, directly from distributing the money in the poor, whom Modi’s ideological family members had also rumored to pay directly to the Zero balance accounts of the poor, Suggestions for freeing these infrastructure from construction of infrastructure to spending on welfare work were also coming. On the strength of this, the expectations of reducing the rates of interest were being expressed so differently. But, now it is known that hardly one percent of money is lost in this way and there is no reason to believe that there will not be enough money in such honest people, due to various reasons, His old notes were not able to take to the banks.
It is clear that there has been no impact on ban on black money players at least directly. And as far as this work is concerned about some earnings of ‘Nation’, then due to the ban on printing of new notes and the banks have deposited in old notes in their hands, huge amount of interest on the unavailable amount for investment On the interest paid by the Reserve Bank to compensate to some extent, in these two items, it is estimated to cost over Rs 30,000 crore only. In this way, if the nearly destroyed Rs 16,000 crore is considered to be ‘earning’ of the government, even then for the banquo, the double cost has to be done directly from the public exchequer. If, in the case of reconnaissance of ATM machines for new notes, the expenditure of about Rs 25,000 crore is added and then the cost of banknotes becomes four times the earnings.
However, proved to be a very expensive failure for the ban on the country, due to the ban, the expenses of these fifty thousand crore rupees are not limited to the expenses. Even if we keep aside the lives of the 103 people who have not been denied by the note- offs , the loss of the country’s economy , which has been made by the ban on bondage , is very heavy. According to the estimates of the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy, this loss will sit near 1.5 lakh crore rupees.
As everyone knows, the worst hit of the banquoises is on our informal economy including agriculture, which is the source of three-fourths employment in our country. The special thing is that the impact of the ban on the sector has not yet ended, and the kill still continues to fall.
The decline in the prices of agricultural products recently, from the Maharashtra to the middle of Madhya Pradesh, the ban on ban was also considered as a huge reduction in cash in rural economy. Evidence of the negative impact still being done on short-term and medium term employment in the informal sector is also coming out regularly. It is not surprising that after the ban, the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product has been consistent in the last two quarters and now it has remained above just 5 per cent.
It is clear that the coffin proved to be a very heavy and expensive mistake.
It is another matter that Jaitley is still busy in misrepresenting the banisters by saying that he has not correctly understood the ban on black money on black money, that black money has been brought from the underground to the open economy by the ban on bondage. , That the basis of the tax has increased due to the ban on bondage, that the availability of cash is going to be reduced due to black business after the ban on filing, etc., etc. But, according to experts, all of this has no effect on black money.
Apart from this, Jaitley can not deny the fact that his government has constantly tried to change the notional goals and in the same way new targets have been floated to reduce the cash ratio and increase the digital economy. It started in the middle of a banquet, after the end of November, the prime minister’s ‘talk of the mind’ had been made by the target of digital transactions. Although there was no need for ban on these goals, even then the goal is to change in such a manner, there is only proof of the huge failure of the banquoement.
-Rajendra Sharma is a well-known thinker and economist.