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Pre-poll survey predicts comfortable win for Congress in Karnataka

Pre-poll survey predicts comfortable win for Congress in Karnataka

The state is scheduled to go to the polls later this year.


If Assembly Polls were to be held in Karnataka today, the Congress (I) will retain power with a comfortable majority.

According to a pre-poll survey conducted by C fore, the Congress will bag 43% of the total votes polled compared to 32% projected for the BJP and 17% for the JDS. These are calculated as translating into 120-132 seats for the Congress, a distant 60-72 seats for the BJP and 24-30 seats for the JD(S).

Using random sampling methodology and a structures questionnaire, the survey conducted between July 19 and August 10, 2017, interviewed 24,679 voters were from 165 Assembly seats covering all districts of the state.

Spread across both rural and urban constituencies, “care was taken to ensure that different castes and communities were represented in the sample as per their proportion [in the total electorate]”.

Regionwise, the pre-poll survey found Congress way ahead of the BJP in the Old Mysore, Hyderabad Karnataka, Bangalore and Central Karnataka while the BJP fared much better than the Congress in the Bombay Karnataka and Coastal Karnataka regions. The appeal of the JD(S) is limited to the Old Mysore region where it is projected to receive most of the votes and seats.

In gender terms, the Congress was favoured by 46% of the females as compared to 42% male voters. The equation stood reversed in case of BJP with 29% of the females opting for BJP as compared to a relatively higher 33% of male voters.

Interestingly, Congress was found to be way ahead of the BJP among all age groups.

Asked to name the government scheme which was the best, 79% of the voters ranked the Anna Bhagya (highly subsidized rice and dal to people below the poverty line) Scheme at No 1 and the Mid-day meal Scheme at No 2.

Drinking water shortage, Bad Roads, Poor sanitation facilities and electricity shortage were identified by the voters as the major problem in their constituency.

Law and order, corruption, price rise and unemployment were not a major concern of the voters, according to the survey’s findings.

Asked how satisfied there were with the current Congress government, 18% were “very satisfied”, 53% “somewhat satisfied” as against 29% who were “not satisfied”.

Whom do you prefer as CM of Karnataka? The response: Siddaramaiah (Congress) 46%, BS Yeddyurappa (BJP) 27%, HD Kumarasway (JD-S) 17%, Don’t know 6%.

Asked to compare the present Congress government with the previous BJP and JD(S) governments respectively, 44% said functioning of present government is better as compared to 28% who preferred the previous BJP government and 18% who preferred the earlier JD(S) government.


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